Spatial response of land use change and ecosystem service value under multi-scenario simulation with Jiangjin District of Chongqing as an example

Exploring land use change and its ecosystem service value under different scenarios is of great significance to promote the harmonious and stable socio-economic-ecological development of Jiangjin District. Based on the three periods of land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use change characteristics under four scenarios, namely, natural development, arable land protection, ecological protection and economic development, and the value-equivalent factor method was used to assess the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ecosystem service values under different development scenarios. The research results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, there were significant spatial and temporal changes in land use in Jiangjin District, with the largest area of forested land being transferred out; the value of ecosystem services showed a decreasing trend year by year, with 98.42 million, 94.29 million, and 92.89 million yuan in the three periods, respectively. (2) The area of forested land in the study area is projected to decline by 2030 under all four scenarios: natural development, cropland preservation, ecological preservation, and economic development, with the fastest rate of change being in construction land. (3) It is predicted that the ecosystem service value of the study area under the four development scenarios will be 84.18 million, 83.35 million, 93.34 million and 83.44 million yuan, respectively; and compared with 2020, the ecosystem service value of the study area under the ecological protection scenario only has increased significantly, and the overall spatial distribution of the study area is characterized by a high in the south, a high in the north and a low in the north. The results of the study can provide a reference for the future spatial planning of land in Jiangjin District.