钟旭珍, 陈远艳. 基于InVEST与CA-Markov模型的资阳市碳储量时空演变及模拟预测J. 内江师范学院学报, 2026, 41(8): 64-71. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2026.08.010
    引用本文: 钟旭珍, 陈远艳. 基于InVEST与CA-Markov模型的资阳市碳储量时空演变及模拟预测J. 内江师范学院学报, 2026, 41(8): 64-71. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2026.08.010
    ZHONG Xuzhen, CHEN Yuanyan. Spatial and temporal evolution and simulation prediction of carbon storage in Ziyang City based on InVEST and CA-Markov modelsJ. Journal of Neijiang Normal University, 2026, 41(8): 64-71. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2026.08.010
    Citation: ZHONG Xuzhen, CHEN Yuanyan. Spatial and temporal evolution and simulation prediction of carbon storage in Ziyang City based on InVEST and CA-Markov modelsJ. Journal of Neijiang Normal University, 2026, 41(8): 64-71. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2026.08.010

    基于InVEST与CA-Markov模型的资阳市碳储量时空演变及模拟预测

    Spatial and temporal evolution and simulation prediction of carbon storage in Ziyang City based on InVEST and CA-Markov models

    • 摘要: 在全球气候变化与"双碳"目标的背景下,为了探究资阳市国土空间规划与碳储量发展情况,研究综合运用InVEST模型的碳储存模块与CA-Markov模型的空间模拟能力,基于土地利用/覆被数据、碳密度数据、地形数据、气象数据和路网数据等,系统分析了2000—2020年土地利用变化对碳储量的影响机制,并预测了2030年不同情景下的碳储量变化趋势.研究结果表明:(1)2000—2020年资阳市土地利用呈现一定波动性,耕地受城市化影响持续减少(1.14%),林地因政策先增(+4.37%)后减(-4.23%),建设用地持续扩张凸显社会经济发展,草地先增后减,水域相对稳定,主要受政策和经济双重驱动.(2)2000—2020年资阳市总碳储量降低幅度为-0.27%.其中地上生物碳储量在2010年有所上升后2020年又出现下降,地下生物碳储量也发生了波动,土壤有机碳储量出现轻微下降,而死亡有机碳储量变化不大.呈现林地驱动-建设用地主导特征,各碳库对土地利用变化响应各异.(3)2030年,通过多情景模拟发现,生态保护情景下碳储量最高(58.06×106t),显著优于自然发展情景(56.76×106t)和经济发展情景(55.79×106t).研究建议通过建立碳储量监测体系、优化土地利用结构及探索生态产品价值实现机制,促进区域"双碳"目标的实现.

       

      Abstract: In the context of global climate change and the "double carbon" goals, this study aims to explore land spatial planning and carbon storage development in Ziyang City. Utilizing land use/cover data, carbon density data, terrain data, meteorological data, road network data, and other relevant datasets, the carbon storage module of the InVEST model and the spatial simulation capabilities of the CA-Markov model were comprehensively applied. This approach systematically analyzed the impact mechanisms of land use changes on carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 and predicted carbon storage trends under different scenarios for 2030. The research results indicate that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the land use in Ziyang City showed a certain volatility, cultivated land continued to decrease due to urbanization (1.14%), forest land increased first (+4.37%) and then decreased (-4.23%) due to policies, construction land continued to expand, highlighting socio-economic development, grassland increased first and then decreased, and water bodies were relatively stable, mainly driven by both policies and the economy. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the total carbon storage in Ziyang decreased by -0.27%. The above ground biological carbon storage increased in 2010 and then decreased in 2020, while the underground biological carbon storage also fluctuated. The soil organic carbon storage showed a slight decrease, while the dead organic carbon storage did not change much. Presenting the characteristics of "forest driven and construction land dominant", each carbon pool responds differently to land use change. (3) In 2030, through multi-scenario simulations, it was found that the carbon storage was highest under the ecological protection scenario (58.06 × 106t), significantly better than the natural development scenario (56.76 × 106t) and the economic development scenario (55.79 × 106t). It is recommended to establish a carbon storage monitoring system, optimize land use structure, and explore mechanisms for realizing the value of ecological products to promote the achievement of regional "dual carbon" goals.

       

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