Abstract:
In the context of global climate change and the "double carbon" goals, this study aims to explore land spatial planning and carbon storage development in Ziyang City. Utilizing land use/cover data, carbon density data, terrain data, meteorological data, road network data, and other relevant datasets, the carbon storage module of the InVEST model and the spatial simulation capabilities of the CA-Markov model were comprehensively applied. This approach systematically analyzed the impact mechanisms of land use changes on carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 and predicted carbon storage trends under different scenarios for 2030. The research results indicate that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the land use in Ziyang City showed a certain volatility, cultivated land continued to decrease due to urbanization (1.14%), forest land increased first (+4.37%) and then decreased (-4.23%) due to policies, construction land continued to expand, highlighting socio-economic development, grassland increased first and then decreased, and water bodies were relatively stable, mainly driven by both policies and the economy. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the total carbon storage in Ziyang decreased by -0.27%. The above ground biological carbon storage increased in 2010 and then decreased in 2020, while the underground biological carbon storage also fluctuated. The soil organic carbon storage showed a slight decrease, while the dead organic carbon storage did not change much. Presenting the characteristics of "forest driven and construction land dominant", each carbon pool responds differently to land use change. (3) In 2030, through multi-scenario simulations, it was found that the carbon storage was highest under the ecological protection scenario (58.06 × 10
6t), significantly better than the natural development scenario (56.76 × 10
6t) and the economic development scenario (55.79 × 10
6t). It is recommended to establish a carbon storage monitoring system, optimize land use structure, and explore mechanisms for realizing the value of ecological products to promote the achievement of regional "dual carbon" goals.