Abstract: The study area encompasses 20 county-level administrative regions within the Sichuan section of the Giant Panda National Park. Land use change data from 2000, 2008, 2016, and 2023 to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of land use over 23 years and calculate the regional landscape ecological risk index. This study investigates the spatiotemporal differentiation and spatial autocorrelation of the landscape ecological risk index within the study area. Additionally, it employs the PLUS model to predict land use changes under three scenarios for the study area by 2030, thereby reflecting the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risks. The results indicate that: (1) From 2000 to 2023, forest land was the dominant land use type in the study area and showed an increasing trend, followed by grassland and cultivated land; (2) During 2000-2023, the overall landscape ecological risk index of the study area was relatively low, with low and relatively low ecological risk zones widely distributed spatially; (3) The global Moran’s I was significantly positive from 2000 to 2023, and local spatial clustering characteristics were mainly dominated by high-high and low-low aggregation; (4) Under the three scenarios of economic priority, ecological protection, and natural development in 2030, the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risks follows historical patterns. In the ecological protection scenario, the area of low ecological risk zones increases the most, while the trends under economic priority and natural development scenarios are relatively consistent.