聂雪梅. 基于SDWAI指数的西南地区旱涝急转时空特征分析J. 内江师范学院学报, 2026, 41(6): 27-36. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2026.06.004
    引用本文: 聂雪梅. 基于SDWAI指数的西南地区旱涝急转时空特征分析J. 内江师范学院学报, 2026, 41(6): 27-36. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2026.06.004
    NIE Xuemei. Analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought-to-flood abrupt alternation in Southwest ChinaJ. Journal of Neijiang Normal University, 2026, 41(6): 27-36. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2026.06.004
    Citation: NIE Xuemei. Analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought-to-flood abrupt alternation in Southwest ChinaJ. Journal of Neijiang Normal University, 2026, 41(6): 27-36. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2026.06.004

    基于SDWAI指数的西南地区旱涝急转时空特征分析

    Analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought-to-flood abrupt alternation in Southwest China

    • 摘要: 旱涝急转事件频发威胁着区域水安全,但针对西南地区旱涝急转事件的时空演变规律及驱动机制仍缺乏系统研究.本文以中国西南地区(四川、重庆、云南、贵州、广西)为研究区域,基于标准化旱涝急转指数(SDWAI),结合趋势与变点检验、空间统计及随机森林模型,系统分析了1980-2020年西南地区旱涝急转事件的时空演化特征及其主要驱动因子.结果表明:(1)西南地区旱涝急转事件强度和频率在近40年显著增强(Slope = 0.020 9/年),1998 年出现整体突变,由"涝转旱"主导转向以"旱转涝"为主,各省突变时间存在差异,显示出区域一致性与差异性并存;(2)空间上呈现显著分异,四川中部、重庆西部及云南中东部为旱转涝事件高发区,而四川北部、重庆东南部及云南西部则更易发生涝转旱事件,湿润区更倾向于"涝转旱",半干旱区则更易发生"旱转涝";(3)驱动机制方面,降水是整个西南及周边省份旱涝急转事件(SDWAI)最具解释力的驱动因子,在各省份中均占据主导地位,且始终表现为显著的正向影响;除降水外,气压、湿度、风速、日照时数、最低温度和最高温度等气候因子也表现出广泛的负向贡献,共同构成多因子协同影响的调控网络.研究结果对揭示西南地区旱涝急转的时空差异性及其气候驱动机制具有重要意义,并为区域水资源管理与灾害防御提供科学依据.

       

      Abstract: Frequent drought-to-flood abrupt alternation (DFA) events pose a severe threat to regional water security, yet systematic research on their spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms in Southwest China remains scarce. Taking Southwest China (Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi) as the study area, this paper employs the Standardized Drought-to-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index (SDWAI), combined with trend and change-point detection, spatial statistics, and a random forest model, to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and dominant driving factors of DFAA events during 1980-2020. The results show that: (1) the intensity and frequency of DFA events in Southwest China have significantly increased over the past four decades (Slope = 0.0209/year), with an overall abrupt shift occurring in 1998, when the dominant pattern changed from flood-to-drought (PTD) to drought-to-flood (DTP). The timing of abrupt changes varies among provinces, reflecting both regional consistency and heterogeneity; (2) significant spatial differentiation is observed: central Sichuan, western Chongqing, and central-eastern Yunnan are hotspots for DTP events, while northern Sichuan, southeastern Chongqing, and western Yunnan are more prone to PTD events. Humid zones tend to experience PTD, whereas semi-arid zones are more susceptible to DTP; (3) regarding driving mechanisms, precipitation (PRE) is identified as the most influential factor for DFA events (SDWAI) across the entire Southwest and its surrounding provinces, consistently exerting a significant positive effect. In addition, atmospheric pressure (PRS), relative humidity (RHU), wind speed (WIN), sunshine duration (SSD), minimum temperature (LOWTEM), and maximum temperature (HIGHTEM) exhibit widespread negative contributions, jointly forming a regulatory network of multi-factor synergistic effects. These findings provide important insights into the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and climatic drivers of DFAA in Southwest China, offering a scientific basis for regional water resource management and disaster prevention.

       

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