夜间经济视角下成渝地区双城经济圈县域经济演变影响因素及空间效应
Factors influencing the evolution and spatial effects of county-level economies in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle from the perspective of the nighttime economy
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摘要: 县域经济发展的时空演变及影响因素研究,对缩小区域差异、推动县域经济协调发展是有意义的.以2012-2023年成渝双城经济圈县域为范围,将经济综合指标同夜间灯光指标结合衡量县域经济发展水平,利用空间格局分析方法探究经济的时空格局变化,用多种计量模型分析经济发展影响因素的区域差异及空间溢出效应.研究发现:(1)成渝经济圈呈以重庆和成都中心城区为中心的"高高集聚"态势,总体集聚效应不断增强.(2)成渝经济圈呈"东-西"格局,重心向西北迁移,西北地区经济增长速度更快.(3)人口规模为最主要因素,市场动力和产业结构为次要影响因素,教育水平、政府调控和金融发展是重要影响因素,影响结果具有经济发展程度和区域限制上的异质性.(4)影响因素在空间上的溢出效应比直接效应影响更大,因素相较于本区对邻近区域经济发展影响更重要.提出建议: 第一,强化双核城市引领发展.加强区域间交通与网络建设,促进要素流动.第二,南北翼一体化发展.推动万达开川渝统筹发展示范区建设,建立南部中心发展试验区.第三,因地制宜.重庆应加强市场体系建设,重点发展先进制造业.四川应加强政府调控能力,加强区域市场协同与高新技术产业发展.第四,区域协调发展.鼓励区域内城市间加强市场流通、技术交流与产业合作等以发挥其强空间溢出效应.Abstract: Studying the spatio-temporal evolution of county-level economic development and its influencing factors is significant for narrowing regional disparities and promoting coordinated development of county economies. Taking the counties within the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle from 2012 to 2023 as the study area, this research integrates comprehensive economic indicators with nighttime light data to measure county-level economic development. It employs spatial pattern analysis methods to investigate changes in the economic spatio-temporal pattern and utilizes various econometric models to analyze regional differences and spatial spillover effects of the factors influencing economic development. The findings reveal that: (1) The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle exhibits "high-high clustering" centered on the central urban areas of Chongqing and Chengdu, with an overall increasing agglomeration effect. (2) The economic circle displays an "east-west" pattern, with its center of gravity shifting northwestward, indicating faster economic growth in the northwestern region. (3) Population size is the most critical factor, followed by market dynamics and industrial structure as secondary influences, while education level, government regulation, and financial development are important factors, with their impacts showing heterogeneity based on the level of economic development and regional constraints. (4) The spatial spillover effects of these influencing factors are greater than their direct effects, meaning the factors have a more substantial impact on the economic development of neighboring regions than on their own. Recommendations are proposed: First, strengthen the leading role of the dual core cities. Enhance inter-regional transportation and network infrastructure to facilitate factor mobility. Second, promote integrated development of the northern and southern wings. Advance the construction of the Wan-Da-Kai Sichuan-Chongqing Coordinated Development Demonstration Zone and establish a pilot urban area for southern central development. Third, adopt tailored measures. Chongqing should strengthen its market system and focus on developing advanced manufacturing. Sichuan should enhance government regulatory capacity, foster regional market coordination, and develop high-tech industries. Fourth, encourage coordinated regional development. Promote market circulation, technological exchange, and industrial cooperation among cities within the region to leverage their strong spatial spillover effects.
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