数字技术创新与新质生产力发展的耦合协调时空格局及交互响应
Spatio-temporal pattern and interactive response of the coupling coordination between digital technology innovation and new quality productive forces development
-
摘要: 基于我国31个省级行政区的面板数据,运用综合评价模型测算我国省级数字技术创新水平与新质生产力发展水平的时空分布特征,运用耦合协调模型计算二者耦合协调程度,并结合P-VAR模型探讨数字技术创新与新质生产力发展的动态交互响应关系.结果表明:(1)研究期内我国数字技术创新水平和新质生产力发展水平不断提升,省际差异显著,整体呈现出"东—中—西"梯度递减的空间格局;(2)我国总体耦合协调度稳定上升,由2017年的濒临失调阶段提升为2022年的勉强协调阶段,但高质量协调发展仍未实现,多数省份处于濒临失调及以下阶段;(3)数字技术创新与新质生产力发展均存在正向的自我强化机制与惯性增长特征,数字技术创新水平的提升能够在短期内促进新质生产力的发展,而新质生产力发展对数字技术创新水平的提升具有明显的滞后性.本研究丰富了数字技术创新与新质生产力相关研究内容,以期为促进科技革命和经济高质量发展提供科学参考.Abstract: Based on panel data from 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China, this study employs a comprehensive evaluation model to measure the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of provincial-level digital technology innovation and New Quality Productive Forces (NQPF) development. A coupling coordination model is used to calculate the degree of coupling coordination between the two systems, and a Panel Vector Autoregression (P-VAR) model is applied to explore their dynamic interactive response relationship. The results indicate that: (1) During the study period, the level of digital technology innovation and the development level of NQPF in China showed continuous improvement, with significant inter-provincial differences, overall presenting a spatial pattern of gradient decrease from east to central to west. (2) The overall coupling coordination degree in China rose steadily, progressing from the "on the verge of imbalance" stage in 2017 to the "barely coordinated" stage in 2022. However, high-quality coordinated development has not yet been achieved, with most provinces remaining in the "on the verge of imbalance" stage or below. (3) Both digital technology innovation and NQPF development exhibit positive self-reinforcement mechanisms and inertial growth characteristics. An improvement in the level of digital technology innovation can promote the development of NQPF in the short term, while the development of NQPF has a pronounced lagging effect on enhancing the level of digital technology innovation. This study enriches the research content related to digital technology innovation and NQPF, aiming to provide a scientific reference for promoting the technological revolution and high-quality economic development.
下载: