张鑫雨, 李旭东, 田俊. 黔中城市群人口-产业-土地城镇化协调发展时空格局及驱动机制[J]. 内江师范学院学报, 2024, 39(2): 101-111. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2024.02.015
    引用本文: 张鑫雨, 李旭东, 田俊. 黔中城市群人口-产业-土地城镇化协调发展时空格局及驱动机制[J]. 内江师范学院学报, 2024, 39(2): 101-111. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2024.02.015
    ZHANG Xinyu, LI Xudong, TIAN Jun.

    Spatial-temporal pattern and driving mechanismfor the coordinated development of population-industry-land urbanization in central Guizhou conurbation[J]. Journal of Neijiang Normal University, 2024, 39(2): 101-111. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2024.02.015

    Citation: ZHANG Xinyu, LI Xudong, TIAN Jun.

    Spatial-temporal pattern and driving mechanismfor the coordinated development of population-industry-land urbanization in central Guizhou conurbation[J]. Journal of Neijiang Normal University, 2024, 39(2): 101-111. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2024.02.015

    黔中城市群人口-产业-土地城镇化协调发展时空格局及驱动机制

    Spatial-temporal pattern and driving mechanismfor the coordinated development of population-industry-land urbanization in central Guizhou conurbation

    • 摘要: 基于2010—2020年人口、产业与土地数据,综合运用耦合度模型、偏最小二乘回归模型和地理加权回归模型,分析黔中城市群人口-产业-土地城镇化协调发展时空格局及驱动机制.结果表明:黔中城市群土地城镇化率增幅明显,人口城镇化水平稳步增长,产业城镇化发展缓慢,产业是推动城镇化发展的主要动力,但产业城镇化质量不高,人口集聚与发展带动能力不足;虽然城镇化协调水平总体较低,但随时间发展呈上升趋势,协调水平以濒临失调和轻度失调为主;协调度变化呈现"微升—大幅提升"的演变特征,中部协调度上升幅度较大,西北部协调度上升较为缓慢;城镇化协调水平空间分异显著,表现出明显的以贵阳为中心的高值集聚区,但县域间差距趋于收敛;路网密度、农民人均纯收入、单位面积投资强度、平均受教育年限、人口迁入率对县域城镇化协调发展影响较为显著,且表现出较强的时空分异规律.

       

      Abstract: Based on the data of population, industry and land from 2010 to 2020, the spatial-temporal pattern and driving mechanism of coordinated development of population-industry-land urbanization in central Guizhou urban agglomeration were analyzed by aid of coupling degree model, partial least squares regression model and geographical weighted regression model. The results showed that: ① the urbanization rate of land in central Guizhou urban agglomeration saw an obvious increase, the level of population urbanization increased steadily, and the development of industry urbanization was slow, industries are the primary driving force for urbanization development, yet the quality of industry urbanization was not high, and population agglomeration and urbanization bring inadequate driving force. ② Although the coordination level of urbanization is generally low, it takes on an upward trend as time goes on, and the coordination level is chiefly on the verge of maladjustment or mild maladjustment; The change of coordination degree shows the evolving characteristics of "slight increase plus drastic increase", with the coordination degree in the central part rising rather significantly and the coordination degree in the northwest part rising too slowly. ③ The spatial differentiation of urbanization coordination level is significant, showing an obvious high-value agglomeration area centered on Guiyang, but the gap between counties tends to converge. ④ Road network density, per capita net income of farmers, investment intensity per unit area, average years of education and population migration rate have significant effects on the coordinated development of urbanization in counties, featuring a strong spatial-temporal differentiation law.

       

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