Abstract:
Based on the recorded statistics including sunshine hours, temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure, low and total cloud cover, assisted by scientific methods including mainly linear trend estimate and test, R/S, and Markov chain, the analysis is focused on different time scales of sunshine hours in Neijiang from 1971 to 2013, and the meteorological factors which influence the sunshine hours are compared. The results show that over the past 43 years the sunshine hours in Neijiang has gradually dropped; in terms of seasonal changes, sunshine hours in summer decreases most sharply; In terms of monthly change, sunshine hours in the summer half year are longer than that of the average level for a whole year.Apart from that, the R/S analysis finds the Hurst coefficients are all over 1/2, which shows an apparent Hurst phenomenon and indicates a further downward trend of sunshine hours in Neijiang in the future. Markov chain predicts that in the future sunshine hours in Neijiang is most likely to vary between 1001.6h to 1152.9h and the interval presents itself as 2.4802a.Moreover, sunshine hours in Neijiang are significantly and positively correlated with temperature, and significantly and negatively correlated with precipitation and most significantly and negatively correlated with total cloud cover. Key words: Neijiang; sunshine hours; R/S; Markov chain; change trend