黄梦娇, 唐健雄, 陕颖颖, 马梦瑶. 基于系统动力学的旅游城镇化发展路径研究——以张家界为例[J]. 内江师范学院学报, 2024, 39(4): 108-118. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2024.04.017
    引用本文: 黄梦娇, 唐健雄, 陕颖颖, 马梦瑶. 基于系统动力学的旅游城镇化发展路径研究——以张家界为例[J]. 内江师范学院学报, 2024, 39(4): 108-118. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2024.04.017
    HUANG Mengjiao, TANG Jianxiong, SHAN Yingying, MA Mengyao. On the development path of tourism urbanization based on system dynamics: a case study of Zhangjiajie[J]. Journal of Neijiang Normal University, 2024, 39(4): 108-118. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2024.04.017
    Citation: HUANG Mengjiao, TANG Jianxiong, SHAN Yingying, MA Mengyao. On the development path of tourism urbanization based on system dynamics: a case study of Zhangjiajie[J]. Journal of Neijiang Normal University, 2024, 39(4): 108-118. DOI: 10.13603/j.cnki.51-1621/z.2024.04.017

    基于系统动力学的旅游城镇化发展路径研究——以张家界为例

    On the development path of tourism urbanization based on system dynamics: a case study of Zhangjiajie

    • 摘要: 旅游业已经成为推进城镇化的一种重要方式,寻求旅游城镇化最优发展路径是新发展阶段下顺应时代潮流的必然要求.根据张家界旅游城镇化发展现状特点,本文从产业经济子系统、社会文化子系统、资源环境子系统来构建张家界旅游城镇化发展的系统动力学模型.在此基础上,设置了现状延续型、经济主导型、社会优先型、环境保护型、协调发展型5条发展路径;通过预测系统内关键变量的变化趋势,并评估2021-2030年张家界旅游城镇化水平,选择最优发展路径.结果表明:旅游城镇化发展系统是一个复杂的动态过程,模拟期内,各子系统的代表性变量变化趋势不一;在5条路径中,协调发展路径对提升旅游城镇化水平效果最优,其他4条路径均存在不同程度的优势和弊端;未来,张家界应遵循“协调优先,全面发展”的原则,综合实施旅游业跨界融合、各区县一体化发展、政府加强调控等措施保障旅游城镇化系统走协调发展路径.

       

      Abstract: Tourism, revered as an important means to promote urbanization, naturally has to seek for its optimal development path to push forward tourism urbanization in the context of the new development stage in conformity with the times. According to the characteristics of Zhangjiajie's tourism urbanization development, this paper constructs a system dynamics model of Zhangjiajie's tourism urbanization development from the three subsystems of industrial economy, social culture, and resource environment, based on which five modes of development paths are set up, namely the status quo continuation mode, economy-dominated mode, society-first mode, environmental-protection-based mode, and coordinated-development mode. The optimal development path is selected through the forecasting of the changing trend of key variables in the system and the evaluating of the level of tourism urbanization in Zhangjiajie from 2021 to 2030. The results show that:1 The development system of tourism urbanization is a complex dynamic process, and the representative variables of each subsystem have different trends during the simulation period; 2 Among the five paths, the coordinated development path has the best effect on improving the level of tourism urbanization, and the other four paths have more or less advantages and disadvantages in different degrees; (3) In the future, Zhangjiajie should follow the principle of "coordination first, all-round development in mind", and comprehensively implement measures such as cross-border integration of tourism, integrated development of all districts and counties, and the strengthening of regulation on the part of government to ensure the coordinated development of tourism urbanization system.

       

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